Five incumbents from Southwest Florida share districts with colleagues

The first house cards for Southwest Florida show potential for internal party battles. They also point out that the only swing district in the 10-circle region will be as politically divided as ever.

So what are the political ramifications of these draft proposals? It is important to note that two card designs published by the House Redistricting Committee both appear radically different, in contrast to the now nine designs from Senate districts that show only minor differences. The legislators themselves, whose political fate often depends on this decades-long process, expressed their reluctance to comment on the cards.

Regardless, there is much speculation about what the maps mean for the region’s political future. Here are some of the key consequences of the lines drawn so far.

Sarasota manatee

The region could lose its only majority-minority district. While House District 70, according to the existing maps, extends from St. Petersburg in the south to parts of Manatee and Sarasota Counties, none of the House maps shows the district that extends south of Hillsborough County. Instead, a newly envisaged House District 62 includes parts of St. Petersburg, Tampa and Gibsonton in both designs. It is noteworthy that the district has long been represented by a representative from Pinellas County; St. Petersburg Democrat Michele Rayner-Goolsby represents the area now. But the chance for a representative from Palmetto or Newtown seems to be over.

This means that a number of Democratic neighborhoods in Manatee and Sarasota must be incorporated into otherwise republican districts. That brings the rep the most consequences. Fiona McFarland, a Republican from Sarasota who represents the only true swing district in the region. Much of their existing house district 72 now falls into house district 73 on both maps. But party analysis by MCI Maps shows the district is more competitive than the existing HD 72.

In the presidential election, Republicans have Donald Trump won 50.2% of the vote for the Democrats Joe Biden45.6% below current lines; McFarland defeats Democrats Drake Buckman with 54.6% to its 45.4%. But both card designs show a closer separation between Trump and Biden. A draft card (H 8005) has HD 73 as the district where 49.5% of voters favored Biden and 49.4% voted Trump. The other draft (H 8007) opposed Trump, but only 49.7% voted for the GOP candidate and 49.3% favored the Democrat.

Such a split has already affected the Democrats. Even under the current composition, HD 72 was won by a Democrat, Margaret Good, as recently as November 2018. Good ran unsuccessfully for Congress instead of running for re-election last year, giving McFarland a chance for a vacant seat. Both McFarland and Good politely declined to comment on the new cards. But many Democrats waited for another shoe to fall, voicing suspicions that regardless of the need to adhere to a Fair District change, Republicans would make the seat more of a battlefield.

But this may not be the biggest challenge McFarland has to face. One draft, H 8005, would actually move the Republican of Sarasota to House District 74, now represented by the Republican of Venice James Buchanan. He lives in HD 74 under both draft cards and intends to re-elect himself. When asked where he intends to run, he told Florida Politics, “74 where I live and represent.”

While a draft map connects Buchanan with McFarland, H 8007 Rep. Tommy Gregory, a Republican from Sarasota, in HD 74. Gregory’s 73rd house district, meanwhile, is effectively changing to house district 72 in both house designs, maintaining much of its current form in Manatee County, but losing all parts of Sarasota County in an attempt to eradicate overpopulation. That’s a safe Republican seat that Trump won with more than 58% of the vote, but one that no incumbent lives in anymore. Gregory did not respond to a request for comment on where he might be walking.

The lines – or the incumbents – could move well before qualifying week in 2022.

Local Republicans greeted the card with intrigue but general optimism. Especially in the current political climate, the incumbent chairman of the Republican Party of Sarasota County Jack Brill said he was confident the GOP can win every seat in the county and send an all-red delegation to Tallahassee next fall.

“We appreciate all the hard work the House Redistricting Committee has put into its cards,” said Brill. “We know our team of lawmakers in office will be victorious with either option and the Sarasota delegation will remain Republican.”

The Manatee delegation would also see a new district in the northern part of the county on both maps. A new HD 70 that represents Lithia Republican more strongly Mike Beltran‘s House District 57, would now cross the Hillsborough-Manatee Line.

Lee Collier

The other high-density area in the region extends from the Fort Myers area in Lee County to the Naples area in Collier. While the region appears Republican-heavy on both stupid maps, there is certainly political intrigue.

Both maps show a house district that encompasses most of Cape Coral, although Florida’s 9th most populous city can be contained in a single district longer than the existing house district 77. The city falls under a new house district 79 in both drafts and brings that district specifically part of North Fort Myers, although parts of Cape Coral fall into neighboring jurisdictions. That has a lot of questionable treatment of the city, especially the map H 8005, which cuts the city of 194,000 inhabitants into three separate house districts.

Including a North Fort Myers piece in the otherwise Cape-heavy HD 79 means the new borough would be home to both Reps. Mike Gialombardo, a Republican from Cape Coral, and Spencer Roach, a North Fort Myers Republican. Gialombardo said he intended to represent the city in the future but has so far held back on commenting on the maps.

“At this point we have two preliminary maps that are very different for Lee County,” he said. “We have to allow the process to unfold before we make any statement about the future, unless I look forward to continuing to represent the people of Cape Coral.”

Roach also held back from predicting the outcome of the process. But he made it clear that he plans to re-elect where the cards show him rather than start looking for a home in a nearby jurisdiction.

“The reallocation process is still in its infancy, and I think any speculation or guesswork about the incumbent primaries is premature until the cards are finalized,” he told Florida Politics. “With that in mind, I intend to run in the district that includes my current residence in North Fort Myers.”

House District 78, now represented by Fort Myers Republican Jenna Persons-Mulicka, would be more competitive under both card designs, but would remain GOP-oriented. There Trump received 53.4% ​​of the vote in 2020. In draft H 8005 Trump received 51.8% of the vote and under H 8007 the Republicans received 52.8%.

There is more discussion among advisors that H 8005 will cause the district to cross the Caloosahatchee River, a major geographic feature. Also, this design carves House District 80, the apparent derivative of the current House District 76 represented by Estero Republican Adam Botana, from the Barrier Islands to a part of Cape Coral that is inaccessible by land without driving through several other districts.

“I would like a district that is completely contained in Cape Coral instead of cutting off the unincorporated Lee County,” said the local political adviser Terry Miller.

Lee County as a whole ends up having more representation in the House than it does now, while having fewer guarantees for all members living in the county. Both maps feature a version of House District 76, now encompassing East Charlotte County, which will have more than one representative for the first time in more than a decade.

A new house district, numbered HD 77 in both drafts, has also been included, covering East Lee, including Lehigh Acres, which currently has no incumbent.

Both maps would extend Botana’s district south into a small part of northern Collier County. In H 8005, however, most of the Naples region falls within the new House District 81. This vision of a coastal district looks close to the boundaries of the existing House District 106. But both designs relocate a different Collier District inland. representative Lauren Melo, a Naples Republican who still lives in this district and now has house district 82 in both designs.

But H 8007 includes the district completely north of Alligator Alley, while the new HD 82 extends inland to the Collier-Miami-Dade circular line. In H 8005, Melos District comprises most of the Inland Collier.

Florida Heartland

In contrast to the coasts, inland southwest Florida has seen little growth over the past decade. But there are still significant changes in the face of the Heartland counties.

representative Kaylee Tuck, a Sebring Republican, lives in a new house district 83, according to both map drafts. Unlike his current house district 55, this district extends west to include all of Hardee.

Meanwhile Rep. Melony Bell loses every constituency in southwest Florida. The Fort Meade Republican would live in House District 50 under each map and be entirely in Polk County on the I-4 corridor.

DeSoto County becomes part of House District 76, which now includes East Charlotte County.

Okay, here’s a thread on SWFL observations on House Legislative Maps, our first look at what Florida’s 120 State House districts might look like: https://t.co/AAd3P2Lk1X

– Jacob Ogles (@jacobogles) November 29, 2021

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