Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Braves – odds, tips and predictions

The Tampa Bay Rays (54-38) meet the Atlanta Braves (45-46) Sunday for the finals of their three-game series at Truist Park. The first pitch is scheduled for 1:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines of BetMGM Sportsbook around the Rays vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

This is the rubber match of the set as these teams split the first two encounters, with the Rays winning the first game 7-6 in additional innings and excluding Atlanta Tampa Bay 9-0 on Saturday.

Season series: Draw 1-1.

LHP Rich Hill is on the hill for the rays. Hill is 6-4 with 3.74 ERA (91 1/3 IP, 38 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 3.4 BB / 9 and 8.6 K / 9 with 18 starts.

• Last game: Loss, 3-1, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 2 K against the Toronto Blue Jays last Sunday.
• vs. Braves in the current roster: 56 At bats with a .232 / .295 / .286 slash line, 14/5 K / BB, 0 HR and 5 RBIs.

LHP Drew Smyly is Atlanta’s planned starter. Smyly is 7-3 with 4.48 ERA (78 1/3 IP, 39 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 3.2 BB / 9 and 7.8 K / 9 over 15 starts.

• Last game: Win, 14-3, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 9 H, 3 BB and 4 K on July 7th with the Pittsburgh Pirates.
• 2021 home splits: 2-1 with 4.70 ERA (30 2/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.24 WHIP and 3.2 K / BB in six starts.

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Rays at Braves odds, lines, tips and predictions

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; Visit USA TODAY Sports for a full list. The odds were last updated at 8:20 a.m. ET.

• Money line: Rays -110 (bet $ 110 to win $ 100) | Braves -110 (bet $ 110 to win $ 100)
• Against spread / ATS: Rays -1.5 (+145) | Braves +1.5 (-175)
• Over under: 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)

forecast

Braves 5, rays 3

Money line (ML)

GIVE ME the BRAVES (-110) FIRST 5 INNINGS for 1 unit because we have a split action in the betting market, with the “sharp” slightly preferring Atlanta, while a slight majority of the “public” is behind Tampa Bay.

For example, according to Pregame.com, more than 50% of the money wagered is wagered on the Braves while almost 60% of bets placed are wagered on the Rays and it is usually wiser to follow the money on sports betting.

In addition, Tampa’s lineup scores more than one full run less per left-handed pitching game and ranks in the bottom 10 of the advanced left-handed punch categories such as wRC +, wOBA, OPS, and hard hit rate.

That being said, the Tampa bullpen is much more reliable than the Atlanta one, hence the BET on BRAVES (-110) FIRST 5 INNINGS instead of the full play money line.

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Tread Line / Against the Spread (ATS)

CONSIST as the Braves -0.5 (+115) First 5 Innings Run Line is a “sharp” price, as Atlanta is actually an underdog on the full-game run line due to its weak bullpen.

Additionally, when Hill starts, five of Tampa’s eight losses are from a single run and the Rays have the fourth highest coverage rate on the road (29-18 ATS).

Over / Under (O / U)

We’ve already discussed how the poor Tampa line-up hits left-handed, but a similar case can be hired for the Atlanta line-up and both line-ups will be easier to navigate for pitching as this interleague game is in an NL park with no DH is played.

Additionally, the Under has been hit with “sharp” money – hence it has been juiced to -115 – despite the vast majority of situational trends suggesting that Rays-Braves might be a higher-score affair.

“LEAN” to the UNDER 9 (-115) for half a unit.

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