UN climate summit could affect the future of Big Bend in South Georgia

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) – World leaders met Monday in Glasgow, Scotland, to begin the UN-sponsored COP26 Climate Change Summit, not only to seek additional solutions to address man-made climate change but also on the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement of 2015. The aim was to limit global warming to less than 1.5 degrees Celsius.

But what happens in Glasgow until November 12th may not stay in Glasgow and could affect the future climate of Big Bend and South Georgia. As long as CO2 emissions on the planet rise, the average global temperature will continue to rise. That includes the southeastern United States

The average temperature in Tallahassee has risen by over 3 degrees since 1970, according to Climate Central. If emissions are not contained quickly, the temperature will continue to rise.

The data graph obtained from Climate Central shows the rise in the average temperature in Tallahassee, Florida, but also future temperature projections with a “business-as-usual” emissions scenario.(Climate control center)

For cities, including Tallahassee, the rise in temperature will also mean that the urban heat island will continue to increase for urban centers than for locations in suburbs or rural areas. These warmer temperatures will impact utility usage, putting a strain on low-income households and further increasing the use of carbon fuels in locations they use to generate electricity.

According to climate data, the night lows have increased over the years. During the Tallahassee summers, overnight lows rose nearly 4 degrees – approaching one degree more than just average temperature – according to data from Climate Central. The increase would affect night-time air conditioning use in cities and rural areas. Forecasts maintain the increase in the future depending on how much more CO2 emissions are released.

According to NOAA, the minimum (low) temperatures in the Southeast have increased in 2020 compared to the 30-year average.(NOAA)

According to an IPCC report published in August, it is predicted that precipitation will increase in the coming autumn in the “worst-case” scenario without adjustments. This comes to the expectation that tropical cyclones will produce more precipitation in a warming world.

According to the latest IPCC report, sea surface temperatures are also forecast to rise in the Gulf of Mexico. This would likely increase the chances of seeing Category 4 and 5 hurricanes as warmer water increases the fuel available for reinforcement. The additional strength of the storm would increase the risk of flooding and damage to storm-prone areas.

The accumulated damage from climate change can also affect wallets. According to a 2017 study, local industries like saltwater oysters weren’t the only factors at risk, but rather factors like “agriculture, crime, coastal storms, energy, human mortality and labor”. The researchers found that the predicted economic damage in many eastern big bend counties would reach up to 15% of gross domestic product by the end of the century.

By the end of the 21st century, when emissions of heat-storing gases continue to rise, most southeastern counties are expected to suffer economic damage from climate change. The colors show the RCP8.5 projected annual economic damage for 2080–2099, expressed as a percentage of the gross domestic product for each district in the southeast. Data from Hsiang, Kopp, Jina, Rising et al. (2017).(NOAA via Hsiang et al.)

Whatever decisions are made in Glasgow could have a lasting impact on the region’s climate and economic future.

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