How will it affect Tampa Bay?

TAMPA, Florida (WFLA) – All eyes are on the tropics and Hurricane Elsa approaching the weekend of July 4th, and many people who live in Tampa Bay are already wondering how the storm might affect our area could affect.

The latest storm trail from the National Hurricane Center was released at 5 p.m. on Friday. It shows a slight shift to the west, but still has most of Florida – including Tampa Bay – in the cone of uncertainty. This means that tropical impacts are possible in our region. If you haven’t already done so, it is a good idea to make all your preparations for the tropical weather this weekend.

However, according to the NHC, the long-term forecast uncertainty at Elsa is higher than normal, as the system could possibly still interact with the mountain islands of Hispaniola and Cuba in the coming days. The mountains will soften the storm as it passes over them, so Elsa would likely be a tropical storm or a weak hurricane by the time it hit Florida.

While the Gulf waters will be warm when Elsa moves over them, high winds from the upper level will help limit the rearrangement after it crossed Cuba.

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So what are the implications for Tampa Bay – IF the current tracksticks? That’s what our Max Defender 8 team thinks, but it’s important to know that it is very early thinking and any changes to the route will change this:

rain

If Elsa’s current trail holds, tropical rainbands could begin late Monday in Tampa. While it’s hard to tell how much rain we might see, our soil is saturated from recent rains, which means flooding could be a bit of a problem even with minimal rain.

wind

Strong winds are also possible if Elsa remains a tropical storm or a weak hurricane. Wind speeds between 40 and 80 miles per hour are not excluded.

Tracking the Tropics: How Accurate are the Hurricane Season Forecasts?

The saturated soil here in Tampa Bay also means it doesn’t take a lot of wind to topple a few trees, which could lead to power outages. If there’s a tree nearby that could potentially fall on your home, weather the storm somewhere else.

Storm surge

If downtown Elsa stays off Tampa Bay, storm surges will be a cause for concern. It’s too early to talk about specific surge heights, but the recent track shift to the west makes it possible.

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If the center of the system is moving ashore south of Tampa Bay, storm surge is not really a problem as the wind direction is offshore during storm height.

Tornadoes

Similar to storm surges, if the center of Elsa stays in the west, isolated tornadoes are possible. That would place most of our area in the right front quadrant, which tends to generate quick spin-ups.

Bottom line

The bottom line is that we’re in the middle of hurricane season and it’s always good to be prepared and have a plan for tropical weather. Now is the time to prepare not to panic.

Elsa still has some obstacles to face before she possibly reaches Florida, so a lot can change by Monday. Keep an eye on the weather forecast throughout the weekend and contact our Max Defender 8 weather forecasters for updates.

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