Elsa became the first Atlantic hurricane of the season on Friday as emergency managers continued to prepare for gusty winds and heavy rainfall to a full-blown large hurricane.
Southwest Florida is almost in the middle of the five-day trajectory cone, according to the National Hurricane Center.
“We need to stay alert to this event,” said Dan Summers, director of the Collier County’s Bureau of Emergency Services. “Obviously we’ve seen some escalation in this storm, and a few miles of variation on this stretch will make a huge difference in southwest Florida. This is a pain in the ass for emergency managers because we could have wind and rain at 40 mph or a little much more.” extensive. ”
The hurricane center says Elsa will carry on as a hurricane before it collides with Haiti and the Dominican Republic and then with Cuba.
From there, the storm is expected to dip to tropical gale strength before hitting southwest Florida and then most of the state.
Elsa’s path appears to be similar to Hurricane Irma, which swept through the region and state in September 2017.
Irma was a much more robust system at this point of development, evolving into one of the largest hurricanes of all time, before interacting with the mountainous region of Cuba, causing the storm to weaken.
The eye hit land near Everglades City and Chokoloskee, bringing with it several feet of storm surge, heavy rains, and winds.
Elsa could take a similar path, but is likely to be much smaller and less powerful than Irma, although the prediction could change drastically between now and the storm hit.
“The timing of the storm along the Florida straights is something we are concerned about,” Summers said. “When we get a potential storm surge situation, we don’t want to get into a nocturnal flood situation. This becomes extremely fluid and has the potential for us to take action.”
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Summers said emergency managers will know a lot more about the storm early next week if it is expected over Cuba.
“We want to get through the weekend and see how it goes,” said Summers. “We hope that the forward speed will decrease as we approach Cuba and that could possibly give us some time. But a fast moving storm would generate fewer storm surges.”
Despite being out in the cone for five days, Southwest Florida has not yet started visiting grocery and hardware stores or gas stations to stock up on supplies from Friday morning.
Along the Daniels Parkway corridor on the lee side, Publix on the Skywalk near Southwest Florida International Airport and Publix in The Shoppes at Fiddlesticks were almost entirely stocked with essentials such as water bottles, bread, milk and eggs.
The same applies to the Walmart Supercenter on Immokalee Road and the Publix on Livingston Road in Naples.
As for the homeware stores, Lowe’s on Naples Boulevard and Home Depot on Bonita Beach Road had plenty of outdoor plywood and other lumber, and a steady stream of residents began preparing for the next week.
Many gas stations along Daniels Parkway, Bonita Beach Road, Immokalee Road, and Pine Ridge Road in Naples had almost all available gas pumps operating, and there were little or no queues of cars waiting to refuel.
That could change over the weekend as Storm Florida draws closer.
Dennis Feltgen of the National Hurricane Center in Miami said storm surges were a potential threat.
“The Florida Keys and parts of the Florida Peninsula are at risk of storm surges, wind and rain early next week,” said Fetlgen. “However, the forecast uncertainty remains greater than usual this weekend due to the possible interaction of Elsa with the Greater Antilles.”
At this point, with Elsa expected to arrive in southwest Florida late Monday or early Tuesday, there is still a lot of uncertainty.
“It is very important for those in Florida to monitor Elsa’s progress and the NHC’s updates to the forecast,” Feltgen said. “Make sure you check your hurricane supplies.”
He also pointed out that predictions can vary dramatically over the course of a few days, that it is difficult at best to predict a hurricane several days before it hits the mainland.
“It should be noted that the average NHC track errors on days four and five are 175 miles and 200 miles,” said Feltgen. “Given the above-average uncertainty, and since the hazards will stretch far from the center of the storm, users are encouraged not to focus on the precise forecast points.”
Connect with this reporter: @ChadEugene on Twitter.
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